Author Topic: Another Oldie But Goodie  (Read 751 times)

offdalip

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Another Oldie But Goodie
« on: April 20, 2011, 10:19:27 AM »


from shadow stats,

maybe I should put it in countdown?

Atash, You can move it there if you wish

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/hyperinflation-special-report-2011
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Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2011, 03:25:58 PM »
I think your instincts were right the first time, Offdalip; it's a money issue, and this is the right place to raise awareness of money issues. Even though as you also realize it also happens to be one of the doomsday mechanisms.

Does everybody have plans in place to deal with long-term inflation? I know some of us do, but I've noticed a lot of folks are awful quiet about it.  :scared010:
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offdalip

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2011, 09:51:14 PM »
gold and silver for anything nonretirement.

I can't really do anything about our retirement accounts since they only allow us to choose gold stocks( our smallest account) or TIPS or  Themed mutual funds or MM. So, I'll just have to rotate in and out of sectors and time the market
while building on PM's.  I think land will become cheaper and have squatters sit in while the owners are away   

but I think gold will sell off a little bit once it hits $1550 maybe 10%

and silver also once it hits $50 back to $40 maybe

once QEII ends in June one would expect a selloff across asset classes, until people realize the FED has no intention .
of raising rates. Because that would kill the PM rally. But the FED can't afford to raise rates unless the bond market forces their hand because treasury has been backed into a corner by the deficit. Can't afford to pay more on interest due...........

Gold and silver.....  wash... rinse... repeat ..... unless anybody has a better idea?????
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"Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable"

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse...."

Eddie

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2011, 10:56:17 PM »


Quote
Because that would kill the PM rally. But the FED can't afford to raise rates unless the bond market forces their hand because treasury has been backed into a corner by the deficit. Can't afford to pay more on interest due...........

Schiff made a comment on msnbc that China will eventually have to de-peg their currency to the Dollar and in return the US will have to raise interest rates to make exports cheaper.

He also said that China could make us eat our own debt for lunch.

Eddie

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2011, 10:58:52 PM »
I forgot to ask. The feds want to kill the PM rally do they not?

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2011, 11:15:56 PM »
I forgot to ask. The feds want to kill the PM rally do they not?

You're right, both the feds and the Fed (Federal Reserve, which isn't really federal--and it doesn't have anything in reserve!!!) hate rising gold prices.

Rising gold prices imply falling confidence in the $US. Because the dollar, like all modern currencies, is pure fiat, it requires confidence among the buying and selling public to maintain its value.

One way to think about it is that inflation feeds on itself: expectations of rising prices turn into self-fulfilling prophesies. Even Alan Greenspan admitted that.

Rising gold prices can increase the public perception of inflation.

The best ways to fight inflation are to cut government spending, which the feds hate, and to raise interest rates, which the Fed hates. If interest rates rise too fast, banks go bankrupt because they borrow short-term and lend longer-term. Their loans (the assets on their books) are locked in at low rates, but they end up having to pay high rates to their customers (the liabilities on their books). That's why the savings and loans went bankrupt the last time this happened.
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offdalip

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2011, 04:30:31 PM »
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"Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable"

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse...."

Lore

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2011, 08:46:31 PM »
The best ways to fight inflation are to cut government spending...
Shutting down most of the Military Industrial Complex would be an excellent start. Foreign adventures are a self-perpetuating disease of capital misallocation.  Other tentacles of the Syndicate should follow. America's real economy won't get a chance to heal while the parasite holds the purse.

Quote
Does everybody have plans in place to deal with long-term inflation?
Unlike many on this board, I don't expect to be self-supporting through production of goods or sharing of knowledge, so my long-term preparation consists mainly of investing in the stable medium of exchange that will allow me to do business with those who have what I need or want.

Broadly speaking, everybody is going to have to live within their means. Does that constitute preparation?
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Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2011, 02:28:15 AM »
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Other tentacles of the Syndicate should follow.

Unfortunately those tentacles are the heads of the Hydra. There is a sort of almost paradox: the weaker a country becomes, the more entrenched its ruling class. As wealth and resources diminish, those who hold the reins of political power can seize what's left, while opportunities for honest private capital accumulation diminish. :(

Quote
Unlike many on this board, I don't expect to be self-supporting through production of goods or sharing of knowledge, so my long-term preparation consists mainly of investing in the stable medium of exchange that will allow me to do business with those who have what I need or want.

Broadly speaking, everybody is going to have to live within their means. Does that constitute preparation?

All of us will be vulnerable. Even those of us with land and tools will eventually have to replace worn-out tools, in a declining economy where their availability will diminish.

Another limiting factor will be declining energy availability. Coincidentally, today I went through Kittitas County on business, and saw the gigantic windmill farms there...most of the windmills sitting idle like they usually seem to. :(  There are no easy answers.

Having a stockpile of means of 3rd-party exchange is a good start; I suggest organizing allies with other resources to trade among.

When I have time I will investigate this organization and its resources:

http://opensourceecology.org/
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silverseeds

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2011, 06:06:46 AM »
When I have time I will investigate this organization and its resources:

http://opensourceecology.org/

Its a very interesting group. I dont get the impression they have a lot of resources, but determination and ingenuity they do have. there are also better answers then they are using for many things, such as building underground, or "earthship" style housing, both of which save tons of resources over time. Theres a couple other issues I saw when looking into their work, that could be done better then they are doing it, but as far as any single lowish budget group Ive encountered, these guys are likely to help many folks start thinking in productive ways that are likely to help many.

Beeherder

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2011, 10:00:39 AM »
Is the fundamental concept behind most "open source" systems that others are encouraged to offer their intellectual property to the "open source" for use by anyone without restriction, license or fee? If that is their premise i bet they would love it if you offered your solutions too. imo every location will have a solutions unique to that local environ.

SS If anyone else learns from what you do and it is your intention to share without restriction are you already "open source"? just waiting for documentation bulletin board to share with the world?

silverseeds

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2011, 10:14:52 AM »
SS If anyone else learns from what you do and it is your intention to share without restriction are you already "open source"? just waiting for documentation bulletin board to share with the world?

yes. But theres a few issues. First my growing methods are acclimated to the high desert. So people in the four corners states are really the main beneficiaries....

Ive gotten onto some aqua culture boards because theres a few "holes" in the designs most use and ways it can be done WAY WAY cheaper, and everything I said was based on well proven things... despite that no one cared. I was attacked etc. So I have to build up more data to convince anyone despite lots of it being rather obvious.

although your right these guys might be just the type I need to contact. im in contact with the garden designer for the earthship folks out of new mexico. and with the few gardeners Ive found, not getting into the ful scope of things with them yet as its a big field and most shut down with that much info, but Ive made contributions....

Locally, Ive got some plans in the works to spread this knowledge fast, but it will take me a season or two to be in a position to do it well. have no doubts I will do so when I am able. Not to sound silly, but I feel life entrusted me with this task, and I will do it the best I can, in the way events imply to me is most efficient.

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2011, 10:44:20 AM »
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Ive gotten onto some aqua culture boards

I live in the perfect area for it. And for all intents and purposes, it is highly illegal here. You are forbidden to handle even native aquatic livestock. Ostensibly for environmental reasons, but the state is the worst offender: they stock lakes that are naturally fish-free, wiping out native frogs, because they collect money on fishing licenses.
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Beeherder

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2011, 07:17:40 AM »
25 years ago the State of Colorado operated a slew of fish hatcheries. When it was discovered that the hatcheries were the source of the Whirling Disease that was devastating the native fish populations. Eventually CO shut down its fish hatcheries and according to local fly fishermen the steams are now starting to recover. What they were doing was raising farm stock trout trained to look up for food pellets and if you were "lucky" enough to catch one of these stockers you got some white fish meat devoid of color and taste. If you catch a real native fish of any trout species it will have pink meat and flavor. This style of fish farming was clearly a failure.

In CO the issue is getting the water, but if SS can find a way then perhaps any of us in the high desert can too. SS are you trying to create a self-sustaining isolated ecosystem? The Open Source Community concept seems like a good one to me, finding the "right" forum for your ideas within that community maybe not so easy. SS, Please tell us more about your success and your frustrations.

silverseeds

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Re: Another Oldie But Goodie
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2011, 09:23:51 AM »
  Well it certainly isnt "self" sustaining. I will either need pumps or to manually move water, but I could re circulate the same water if need be.

  I still need to work out the exact details honestly... but everything Im doing is sound......

  examples.... and yes you could scale this up to industrial sized. the industry spend 60-70 percent of the capitol on feeding the fish, it doesnt have to be the case.... here are some variables, and it will give you an idea.... in no particular order, bear with me Im not good a explaining myself...

   Most back yard aquaponics set up use a series of grow beds for LAND based plants. these grow beds costs 1000s to install. They have lots of parts that could need fixed. the idea is the fish wastes feed the plants. the reality is that you need to have the nitrification cycle going on. where bacteria that live in your growing medium for the plants, in the beds you drain and flood ALL DAY turn these harmful things into less harmful ones the plants can pull from the water. Its a ton of work to regulate all that. Beyond the skill level of many. Also if you read into it, the land based plants are deficient in key things like iron magnesium and potassium sometimes others. You have to supplement those things from elswhere for your plants to survive.... the same efforts and WAY less capitol would grow the same plants more productively in soil. without needing supplemented. the foods are also nutritionally deficient, although the industry like to ignore that one. Greens which grow a bit better in such set ups then other things will concentrate nitrates to dangerous levels.... and to top it off you STILL need to buy the fishes food.

           so to cap this... you grow less efficient supplemented land based foods, while buying subsidized land based foods for the fish to eat. It "seems" real interesting on the surface but its flawed from the start....

    The dead foods most feed their fish are corn and soy based and store bought. these foods must be eaten in 3-5 minutes to not degrade nutritionally!!! which means you are hard pressed to maximize feeding levels without also lowering foods quality. Unless you feed every 1/2 hour 24 hours a day. This same food also degrades the water rather fast. So not only loosing nutritional value, but also lowering water quality...

    Now lets say your goal is to grow fish for yourself. Your sane so you want to grow their foods as well. Dont get me wrong part of why carp or tilapia are so neat is they eat anything, but leave that to scraps imo. If you grow corn just for them, or beans etc. How do you feed it? Do you process it into a feed? etc? Many use worms and thats great, but what if they dont eat them all right away? All these things degrade the water, although being fresher are healthier.....

   So then heres my thinking, with some well established facts to back it.

   Duckweed, azolla, and Id have to look up the names of the others... are all VERY fast growing. they can pull 90 percent of the amonia and other wastes from the water. Its used in sewage treatment in some places because of this. It grows WAY WAY faster then land based plants. doubles its biomass in 2-3 days. It can be dried and feed to chickens, rabbits, ducks, fish, etc... very nutrient dense. Pulling out 90 percent of the nitrates is BETTER then what the land based plants can do. So duckweed alone, can alter the whole game. you dont need all those grow beds and all the growing medium. 1000s of dollars worth of stuff. You dont need to regulate the draining and flooding of grow beds, and if it fails all your fish might die from anaerobic conditions.  Because as a proper WATER based plant, duckweed doesnt need the nitrification cycle to be able to harness it. unlike land based plants.

     so back up a second, duckweed alone offers both a SUPERIOR filtering action then ANY system even ones costing 50k for a back yard set can do with land based stuff. It also provides one of the most efficiently growing nutrient dense foods on the planet. theres other bonuses to, used fresh it doesnt degrade into the water when you feed your fish. In fact until the eat it, it will continue to grow, and filter their water. Right in the same kiddy pool I can grow crayfish (Ive got a great species for this), moina, daphnia and other phyto plankton, which carp LOVE... also other plants, to round out the diet..... Basically everything these fish would eat in the wild!!!...

     So I can stock the carp tanks with as much duckweed as they like to eat in a day or two, as much of the plankton as grew eatra that day, and other assorted plants. ALL of these clean in filter the water, all of them at the peak of their nutritional qualities until the second they are eaten. And the fish can browse ALL day, rather then , try really hard to get a full belly in the 3-5 minute window you alloted it.... best of all these plants are more efficient to grow, and grow while cleaning the fishes water....

    Perhaps most importantly the fish are HEALTHIER on live foods. Its a simple fact. theres a reason why fish farms NEED antibiotics. Just like any other animal keep them healthy from the start.....

     So I still need to figure out exactly how much surface area I need to grow the amount of duckweed needed to regulate the fishes water. I can use an additional sand filter for further nitrification if its needed, I can also use a charcoal filter for chemical filtration if needed. I can do those things myself by the way, even made of clay should I need to. the plants alone can keep the water good enough in fact better then land based plants.... but an extra polishing would be best if you want a truly closed system. If waters scarce thats the way to go, if the water isnt scarce, just drain some out and add more every few days.

    So if you look at all the variables together.... You can have less efficiently grown store foods for the fish, or less efficiently grown foods you grew yourself that will take a lot of processing and work to feed well. Or you can easily grow the same types of things these fish WANT to eat and keep them healthiest, more efficiently. While delivery ideal nutrition, the ability to browse as the fish wants, and keeping the fish healthier. Happier as well, my fish are clearly happier since I used live foods. the extra duckweed is a great feed for most any other animal including humans although I dont think its terribly palatable for humans. nutritionally dense though.

    that same food you grew for the fish now doesnt need to be grown, those land based plants the aqua ponics system offered are now grown in soil with no nutritional issues, and except for the extremely expensive set ups(which are essentially hydro ponics adding outside inputs all the time since the fish wastes dont give the complete scope)  will do better in the soil if you have good soil. So looking at all the variables at once, theres a wide room for improvement. You could also do this for the price of the tanks and a bucket if your willing to move water yourself, even with automatic pumps its a fraction of the capitol. Stocking densities become a matter of how oxygenated you can get the water, which means if you have no electricity or mechanical means  of oxygenation, you could grow fish still, but nothing like the levels you can achieve with it. Same with any other small system though of course. But theres much less to break, healthier happier fish, optimum feeding, most efficient paths to grow each thing needing grown, no need of outside inputs (besides man hours or some electricity of course) cleaner water, much much less capitol, less to break, the system much less likely to crash. even if your pumps failed and your reduced to moving water with buckets for awhile, youve got a window to do it in. the whole nature of how the grow beds is different. In the other set ups they could go anaerobic in a day, and wipe out your fish. Which can be an issue for those folks even if that never happens, and you stir up the bottom of their tanks. So its easier to manage as well. Just because i intend to do it mostly manually doesnt mean you couldnt set it up automatically, it would still be a fraction of the capitol, and less chance of issues. youd just go by once a day and take plants, and animals from the grow beds and give them to the fish.

    there are lots of other little things as well, but those are the bigger ones. there are also some edible plants for humans I could grow as part of my water filter as well, but Im focusing n growing a diverse range for the fish first. water plants are more efficient then irrigating something in the soil by the way, as the only water lost is evaporation.

    I reread the post, I dont think I wrote this well.... Im not always good at expressing ideas. But you can get the gist of it.