We're seeing significant milestones NOW

[Atash Hagmahani]

Member states of oil-exporting cartels are starting to crumble due to popular uprisings.

When you think about it, a lot of their problems are similar to ours, but at least in some cases worse:

* high unemployment rates
* wages that have been eroding long-term against rising costs of living
* preference for hiring immigrants over natives
* decadent ruling class propped up by foreign banking interests

Interestingly the powers that be did foresee some of this and took some action. For example, they are trying to hedge their bets with plants like El Bardei, who is on George Soros'es payroll.

The problem is they don't control all the opposition parties including and especially not the Shi'ites in Bahrain. I suspect this is the reason for the brutal response from the monarchy, despite Hillary and Obama's pretense of begging for non-violent solutions. It's a ruse designed to create a pretext for dealing with the next regime, particularly if it's not one they control.

This is their problem, not ours. Please be clear on this. REGARDLESS OF WHO RULES BAHRAIN, THE OIL WILL FLOW. The real problem, that won't go away, is that THERE IS NO SIMPLE SOLUTION TO THE CONDITIONS THAT CREATED THE UNREST. THAT'S BECAUSE OIL PRICES HAVE NOT KEPT UP WITH INFLATION.

The situation is structurally unstable, regardless of political outcome!

Unstable price of oil -> unstable $US

I think there are a host of problems here. For example, probably escalating military responses. We'll notice inflation more because it will result in rising cost of living.

The interesting times have begun.

[Ozark Lady]

Ummm!  Can we just sit this one out?
Or stay as a spectator in the bleechers?

I hope so, but as oil prices rise, consumer prices rise.  And paychecks don't reflect this rise.  So money is stretched to the breaking point.

Afraid that sooner or later, we are going to see folks jumping out of the bleechers and protesting in all countries.  Hungry people are scared and dangerous people, due to the fact, that they must eat to live!  The balancing act, is to try to be a person who can remain in the bleechers while the world around them is in chaos...

Can we do it?

[Atash Hagmahani]

Well, oil is up 4% today, reportedly on the trouble in Libya. One day does not make a trend, but there is nothing to prevent the trend from continuing.

Demonstrating or rioting will solve nothing; it leaves the people doing it at the mercy of the military and/or police, it does not capture strategic targets, and above all, it does not make the price of food and petroleum go down.

The correct solution is to store enough means of living to ride out shorter crisis, and to set up efficient production of basic necessities for the long haul, and to keep a low profile.

Production will require setting up entire small detached economies. Organize.

People want fast, easy solutions. That's why they like demonstrations.

[Eddie]

Time to buy a motorcycle.

[darwinslair]

maybe some good bikes.

Tom

[Ozark Lady]

Unfortunately, tough economic times often lead to short tempers, desperation and greed.

Remember before WWI and WWII both there were severe economic issues.  These were pretty much worldwide.
But some countries thought to fix the problem, with someone else's resources... and the wars were on!

There was rationing, and deprivation during WWII, here in America, and I am sure in other countries too.

Unfortunately, as people die in wars, there are more resources left for the survivors... scary thought.

It could well become, survival of the strongest, on a global scale, and not just with the neighborhood bully.

Definitely, folks and countries need to batten down the hatches, stock up, and not be a focal point.  Very volatile times we are living in.

[Atash Hagmahani]

You're right that economic problems often precede wars. Ironically wars tend to be wasteful of resources. Also, the lives that are spent tend to reduce productivity.

Goods and services don't grow on trees; they need to be produced. You start drafting young men who were or could have been farmers or factory workers, and productivity declines. Therefor, as the body count rises, there might be more natural resources, but there are fewer produced goods. This is what happens whenever a radical government starts implementing genocide as a means of demographic control. The most productive people are usually the first targets for destruction, while obedient parasites tend to be safe.

That, indeed, is one of many reasons production has largely been shifted offshore. But I think that globalization is unsustainable, and will break down.

[opsec]

But I think that globalization is unsustainable, and will break down.

Can you explain this in a bit more detail? How and why do you see globalization unravelling?

[silverseeds]

  in my mind globalism will not unravel unless the people of the world demand it. Order out of chaos. whether or not you want to label it "theory" or conspiracy theory this has been in play for decades. Past economic issues and wars created to catapult it further including the current mess. Lack of the ability for international trade or very poor economic conditions in general really are meaningless to these ends. i dont see those as negating the centralization of power.

In fact Id say international trade was used more a means toan end rather then the establishment of a global hierarchy. although it did that as well. what I mean is it was used to turn many into slaves and expect it, and to the richer countries slowly watered down their economies while lower quaility and inflation kinda hid the truth somewhat of our actually lowered status in regards to wealth. if global trade unravels and this appears possible if not likely i many fields it wont suddenly make those in the slave nations free or those in the formerly wealthy nations have solid places to work. In fact a further crash could both end global trade and provide more impetus or excuse for more centralized decision making to help heal the created wounds.....

   things were set up for this and anticipating many avenues. I dont think anything short of people demanding it will change a thing. Heck we have global governance NOW. Study the IMF in depth, and world banks etc, they move and act as a world government. they shape and mold realities for billions. The power centers of most of the worlds various countries relate with and respond to these folks demands NOW. Its all ready done, we all ready have global governance they are just waiting to tell us about it. It wont go away unless we bury it ourselves.....

[Atash Hagmahani]

But I think that globalization is unsustainable, and will break down.

Can you explain this in a bit more detail? How and why do you see globalization unravelling?

In order to have trade on any scale, you need a credible token of 3rd party exchange. Within a country, that's the national currency.

Currently there is a de facto international currency called the $US. What established the $US as the de facto international trade currency was setting up client states in the oil producing economies (OPEC) at least one of which (Saudi Arabia) agreed to keep the price of oil stable in terms of $US. Henry Kissinger negotiated this in 1974.

The fact that those client states are in danger of being overthrown by popular uprisings is somewhat irrelevant, though the writing is on the wall. No matter who controls the remaining oil, it is running out, and therefor impossible to keep the price stable. That's why the price of oil has spiked in the last few days.

If you know that you can sell your goods for $US, and then take those $US and buy oil with them at stable prices, then you're more willing to accept $US for your goods. If on the other hand the $US loses its credibility, then you might not accept them, or you might keep discounting them. Either way has the same effect.

If the currency of global trade breaks down, then so does globalization.

Silverseeds, I understand your point of view and I agree that the globalists will try to save the system. One of the things they will likely do is establish some "basket of currencies" nonsense, and let the Chinese have a seat at the table.

I don't think it will work. The Europeans who are relatively well-organized flopped at the euro. Some countries quickly discovered that they could have inflationary policies, and let Germany pay for them. No matter what the rules are, there is no way to enforce them against massive moral hazard.

What about one world government? Well, we already have international shadow government, but it is missing a few players, China and Russia being two big ones.

There are other things going wrong too. The whole global economy was getting too dependent on "economies of scale". Well, there is a point of diminishing returns, and once it was hit, the whole thing starts going in reverse.

Also, the fuel to push goods around the globe is getting expensive, and global fleets are getting rusty.

[Atash Hagmahani]

Warning, spoof:

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/davos-sherman-okst/chinese-renminbi-announced-as-new-world-reserve-currency

[Eddie]

What about one world government? Well, we already have international shadow government, but it is missing a few players, China and Russia being two big ones.

There are other things going wrong too. The whole global economy was getting too dependent on "economies of scale". Well, there is a point of diminishing returns, and once it was hit, the whole thing starts going in reverse.

It seems as though the possibilities for another world war are more real now then ever before. China and Russia are two restraints holding TPTB back.
I doubt they will go down without a fight and allow China to become the worlds new super power with a reserve currency. Just my thoughts.

[Atash Hagmahani]

I doubt they will go down without a fight and allow China to become the worlds new super power with a reserve currency. Just my thoughts.

I agree, and I don't like the tone of the rhetoric coming from certain circles, that I suspect is priming us for grave sacrifices. 

[opsec]

I doubt they will go down without a fight and allow China to become the worlds new super power with a reserve currency. Just my thoughts.

I agree, and I don't like the tone of the rhetoric coming from certain circles, that I suspect is priming us for grave sacrifices. 

Oh, tell me more about this...

[Atash Hagmahani]

1. Hollywood war-and-sacrifice movies.
2. Neoconservative websites with bogus "intelligence reports" basically saying "today Iran, tomorrow China".

China was allowed to take over pretty much every industry in the country, including even a lot of food production and/or processing, for purely ideological reasons coming out of cultish thinktanks, with the absolutely predictable result that they would use their position to buy up strategic resources and technology.

They send representatives to global warming and carbon control conferences, only to agree with cap-and-trade type regulations for the USA while themselves being one of the biggest polluters on the planet. They go along with globalization drives to the extent and only to the extend that it benefits themselves. They're playing their own game.

I think that TPTB would like to draw them into the system, but have not figured out how to do that, so we will end up in at least a cold war with the Chinese for exactly the same reasons, except this time we won't have to prop up China like we did the Soviet Union.