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Author Topic: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond  (Read 559 times)

offdalip

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Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« on: February 16, 2011, 11:48:25 AM »
Even Shell is saying to run for the hills for at least the next 5-10 years............ :scared003:

http://www-static.shell.com/static/aboutshell/downloads/aboutshell/signals_signposts.pdf
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Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2011, 02:06:22 PM »
This report was mentioned on a CFR (Committee on Foreign Relations...NWO think-tank and propaganda center) report recently. I'll have to read the original as it was probably a lot less condescending to the riff-raff than the CFR report, not to mention if it's gloomy as you say then it's probably worth knowing what the original said before they spun it.
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Beeherder

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2011, 02:44:39 PM »
just spot reading a little and if this thing is the spin doctored version, the CFR version must be revealing, please let us know what you find.


Quote
But the global recovery has been stronger than expected – lacklustre in many advanced economies, but robust in most emerging and developing countries. Monetary policy has been highly accommodative and supported by unconventional asset purchases by central banks. Fiscal policy also provided a major stimulus in response to the deep downturn, but at the expense of fiscal sustainability in some countries./quote]
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offdalip

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #3 on: February 17, 2011, 08:07:15 AM »
Quote
just spot reading a little and if this thing is the spin doctored version, the CFR version must be revealing, please let us know what you find.

No, This is the original one. The CFR is the org that spin doctored it, even tho' I haven't read the spin version yet.

Anyways, if SHELL , the second largest company in the world is this gloomy...............  :shocked013:

BP and Exxon also have their versions that are not quite as negative.

time to find a nice hole to hide in
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"Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable"

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse...."

Dame

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #4 on: February 17, 2011, 04:47:06 PM »
"From a climate perspective, scientists predict that the management of energy use in cities - from which almost 80% of CO2 emissions emanate - will be a decisive factor in the coming years."
http://www-static.shell.com/static/aboutshell/downloads/aboutshell/signals_signposts.pdf

I have been reflecting on the implications of this quotation since reading the article yeasterday.
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Beeherder

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2011, 12:18:35 PM »
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offdalip

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2011, 12:28:02 PM »
No, the shell pdf specifically says the intermediate time period between now and 2030 is when the transitional upheaval will take place
and that past 2030-2040, past the transition period things will settle down again.
i.e. now is the time to hunker down

Did you read the pdf Bee?
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"Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable"

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse...."

offdalip

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2011, 12:37:02 PM »
http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/the-future-of-public-debt/

you might have to do a free signup Bee, but this article goes on and explains the future timeline of what you just posted.....
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"Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable"

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse...."

Beeherder

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #8 on: February 18, 2011, 12:51:55 PM »
sorry did not read it all. Got to page 8 diagram showing "Zone of Extraordinary opportunity or misery" then the page 18 trends diagram, followed immediately with more AGW propaganda and gave up further reading. Did not see clear indication of when they thought the road gets real bumpy but it appears to be here this year triggered by weather crisis. I figure my odds of surviving much beyond 2030 without a crisis is fairly low given my current age of 62, i expect more than one crisis. The Shell suggestion that Depression 2.0 is a very real possibility seems like an admission that they are preparing to profit from this convenient crisis. that's where i stopped reading.

trying to agree with you ODL, but at some point i just stop when the AGW flag is waved. I suspect Dame is correct to point out their plans to "manage" energy use in the cities and question what that may mean.

I see it, you see it, why can't more folks see it?

And thanks for that followup i'll check that too, you posted just as i was getting logged out.
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offdalip

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #9 on: February 18, 2011, 12:55:28 PM »
AGW?

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"Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable"

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse...."

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #10 on: February 18, 2011, 01:55:03 PM »
Probably "anthropic global warming".

Beeherder, sometimes the only way to glean information from people who have much deeper pocketbooks than you do, and can afford research staff, is to put up with propaganda.

Think of it as  being like the commercials on broadcast television. Something has to pay the bills.

I often post stuff even that I disagree with, as long as I can glean information out of it. Sometimes I even post stuff that I think is full of lies, if I think I can infer truth from it.

Real information is a scarce commodity and you have to look carefully for it and expect to do some gleaning. :hug004:
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Dame

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2011, 02:48:26 PM »
From DH:  Kind of like harvesting grain, about 8% chaff/weeds before winnowing.  With "research" the ratio is reversed.

I am anticipating that political expediency (way more votes in the cities) will dictate that draconian emision controls will be implemented in the country rather than the cities (ie: oil sands, feed lots, farm fuel) which will only have the effect of increasing food costs (last time here in Canada they implemented price controls on energy and food).    Gets votes but escalates whatever problem there may be. 

This time the elites (whoever they may be) will have to consider where they will be getting their food if they follow the time honored  tactics.
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offdalip

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #12 on: February 18, 2011, 03:30:32 PM »
Quote
Probably "anthropic global warming".

Oh......

I pretty much ignored that part of the report, it was the other stuff that I was interested in.

One other thing that is interesting, or maybe alarming.
They were suggesting a separate scenario than the worst case scenario, and that was the "blueprint" scenario.

makes you wonder if they would like to have or suggest we coallese into a new world order that comes up with a "blueprint"
for a better scenario.

And yeah, they have very deep pockets so even if I don't like what they say, I listen
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"Events can move from the impossible to the inevitable without ever stopping at the probable"

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse...."

Dame

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #13 on: February 18, 2011, 03:35:11 PM »
offdalip, I think you are correct and that the "blueprint" is a step or two above their worst case senario and is a NWO one size fits all.
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Beeherder

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Re: Scenarios to 2030 and beyond
« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2011, 07:04:51 PM »
Sorry, didn't mean to obfuscate but as usual my meaning is not easy to decipher. When its the muse speaking at least there is an excuse for sloppy communications, not here. AGW Anthropomorphic Global Warming

Agreed, all around lots of stuff in there just no surprises its the same thing i have believed (seen??) as the most likely future for my old age. A major economic depression (pick your cause de jour) general econmomic collapse, draconian uber TSA/DHS limiting most travel (i felt this way before TSA existed). People tell me its all in my head, you just make this stuff up BH whatsa matta you?

eye did read every word of that John Mauldin article, spot on, well researched. I am in much more of a panic about this than this guy. Not to be critical but he is sitting pretty, while i am much closer to the other end of the class/economic spectrum. So to me finding these nuggets (thanks to you all) that confirm my deepest fears but seem to soften them a bit, is a good news, bad news thing. Sometimes i'd rather be wrong than learn it may even be worse than i thought.

silver took a steep jump up today.
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