Author Topic: Gulf spill and its possible consequences  (Read 2512 times)

offdalip

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #60 on: July 13, 2010, 01:08:32 PM »
Sorry you went thru that ordeal,;

I've been in some, hurricane Andrew in S. FL, also hurricane Charlie cat 4 was supposed to slam straight into us and changed its mind at the last minute missing us by 70 miles,. bunch of other canes. Much like the wildfires, at least you know ther're comin'.

Quote
and then the question becomes will you GOOD when the winds shift in the autumn.

Canary in the coal mine.
Winds are right now seasonally onshore in LA, MS, AL.
When I start to hear some folk over there dropping dead, then I very well may.

I just haven't seen anything that is gonna do that. methane? hydrocarbons? corexit? underwater explosion?
The only things I see going down is all the marine life will be wiped out for sure
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Beeherder

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #61 on: July 13, 2010, 05:58:37 PM »

nice that you are not the canary, ... this time.

this guy again at IMVA :

http://intotheashes.imva.info/?p=388

And the embedded video??

offdalip

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #62 on: July 14, 2010, 05:33:47 AM »
that site has an agenda

also, they can't get their facts straight, Nalco not Nalso, and corexit is 4x or 20x more toxic than crude?

they say butoxyethanol evaporates into rainclouds, wrong. the decomposition of butoxyethanol gives butanol and ethanol which
do evaporate into clouds. and this is not anywhere near as toxic at all as the soap in corexit which is incredibly toxic and cannot evaporate at all.

the vid: facts

all sealife is dead,                     fact.

corexit does not evaporate, at least not until 340 degrees F boiling point
I finally looked it up altho I pretty much knew what the chemical properties were from the structure
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2-Butoxyethanol        fact.

the third thesis of the vid, that corporations are evil, has nothing to do with the GOM.
an entirely different matter.
corporations went wrong when they were given the same or greater rights than humans.
circa 1850's when they were no longer required to do a "public benefit" to be chartered

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offdalip

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Chemical Dispersants and Crude Oil - Efficacy and Toxicity
« Reply #63 on: July 14, 2010, 12:44:19 PM »
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6724#more

Background
As background, here are two of the better press reports on using dispersants on the BP oil spill:

Researchers Worry About Oil Dispersants’ Impacts, Too

Slick Solution: How Microbes Will Clean Up the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Use of dispersants on the BP spill reportedly began on April 27, 2010, but Corexit 9527A use was soon discontinued in favor of Corexit 9500.

Substantial information about dispersant use on this oil spill is provided at the EPA website.

Simply put, the purpose of dispersant is to emulsify the oil, like bacon grease in soapy dishwater. In the case of oil released underwater, dispersant reduces the amount of oil surfacing, hence reducing danger and toxicity for the topside workers trying to repair the damaged well and contain the spill. It also increases surface area and time for oil-droplet exposure to microorganisms in the water column. The microbes digest the oil into simpler and much less harmful chemicals, much as happens with household sewage in a septic tank or wastewater treatment plant.


Efficacy of dispersants
Much is known about which organisms (the biotic components) are important hydrocarbon degraders in the environment, the metabolic degradation pathways (the process mechanisms), and the fate of hydrocarbons in the environment, both in the presence of oxygen and its absence, as recently reviewed by Head et al. (2009; citation below). More than 200 genera of bacteria, cyanobacteria, fungi, and algae are known to degrade or transform hydrocarbons, using them for energy and carbon. Oil-consuming bacteria include sulfate-reducers and acid-producers, which thrive in anaerobic waters, whereas general aerobic bacteria require oxygen. Thus dissolved oxygen is not necessarily limiting to marine oil degradation (but low sulfate availability could be limiting in some situations). More generally, oil degradation in marine waters is strictly limited by the availability of nitrogen and phosphorus, and it also may be limited by bioavailability of the oil, as in cases of burial by mud or beach sand. Oil degradation is also temperature-dependent, but like surface waters, extreme marine environments (such as deep, dark, cold, high-pressure waters) also are occupied by diverse locally-adapted micro-organisms, including oil degraders (Margesin and Schinner. 2001. Biodegradation and bioremediation of hydrocarbons in extreme environments. Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology 56:650-663).

Crude oil is complex stuff, with four operationally defined groups of chemicals: saturated hydrocarbons, aromatic hydrocarbons, resins, and asphaltenes. Light crude is typically higher in the first two (lighter) groups than the last two heavy (polar) ones. At the marine surface, physical reduction (via evaporation and photo-oxidation) and biodegradation of light crude greatly reduces the proportion of the lighter fractions and increases the proportion of the heavier fractions. In deeper, dark waters, biodegradation proceeds without the benefit of the physical processes. In either place, degradation of the most voluminous fraction (saturated hydrocarbons) is prominent in reducing the volume of a spill, but the aromatic and heavy fractions are more toxic and persistent, so their fate is also quite important.


Normally the hydrocarbon-degrading organisms are diverse and widespread but not common in the environment. When crude oil is introduced, however, these organisms are favored by the new conditions, and their populations bloom and become very abundant in a short time. Some of these organisms consume mainly saturated hydrocarbons, while others consume mainly aromatic hydrocarbons, and these fractions can be largely removed within a few weeks by biodegradation.

Lessons learned about biodegradation and remediation of oil spills have come mainly from beach sites and laboratory microcosm studies; much less is known about the course of open-ocean spills, whether treated or not. Both beach and ocean surfaces can be treated with dispersants and or fertilizers, but deepwater environments can be treated only if injection at the oil source is an option. Note that such deepwater injection, if overdone, would cause undesirable pollution in its own right. In microcosms, Röling et al. (2002) showed that the amount of oil degradation is strongly related to the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus available. With no fertilizer added, oil degraded quite slowly, but small amounts of nutrients were introduced by death of the microbial biomass, suggesting that a self-reinforcing process operates, albeit modestly. Oil degradation in fertilized microcosms proceeded more rapidly when more nutrients were provided, but the final extent was similar if enough time passed. Managed addition of particular oil-degrading organisms has often failed to improve biodegradation, either because factors other than the presence of particular organisms is important or because the organisms added are poorly adapted to the field environment and thus have poor survival.

Venosa and Holder (2007) measured biodegradation of the highly bio-available fractions of dispersed crude oil, using Corexit 9500 and JD2000 in laboratory flasks that were constantly shaken. The rate of degradation was strongly temperature-dependent because of lower bacterial metabolic rates at lower temperatures. Degradation was much more rapid for dispersed oil than for non-dispersed oil, because in the non-dispersed control the microbial culture first had to generate its own biosurfactant to emulsify the oil before substantial degradation could occur. Eventually, however, the degradation of non-dispersed oil caught up with that of dispersed oil in terms of residual concentrations.


Zahed et al. (2010) studied biodegradation of light crude oil (the full complement of fractions) in seawater samples taken into the lab from coastal Malaysia (several sites to obtain representative biotic communities), using Corexit 9500 dispersant. They measured removal of total petroleum hydrocarbons over 45 days under several treatments, with initial oil concentrations of 100, 500, 1,000 and 2,000 mg/L. Treatments were

(1) seawater with locally acclimated microorganisms cultured in fertilizer (CO),
(2) seawater with microbes cultured in fertilizer plus Corexit 9500 dispersant (DCO),
(3) natural attenuation of oil in seawater with no culture, fertilizer, or dispersant, and
(4) abiotic control seawater, treated with biocide to show effects of purely physical reactions.

(There was no treatment that included dispersant without cultured organisms and fertilizer.) Abiotic oil loss (evaporation, photo-oxidation and other physical reactions in the absence of microbial activity) in this study was 20%. Natural attenuation resulted in 25-32% oil removal, with more removal occurring the lower the initial concentration. DCO oil loss ranged from 45 to 67%, again with more removal occurring the lower the initial concentration. CO oil loss ranged from 38 to 64%. Thus one-third to two-thirds of the oil was destroyed via biodegradation over the course of 6 weeks. The oil-loss timelines show that long exposure of the oil to biodegradation processes was needed to maximize benefits of the breakdown process.


Toxicity of dispersants
The US National Research Council issued a report on dispersants in 2005. The report succinctly noted the tradeoffs involved in dispersant use: “Dispersant application thus represents a conscious decision to increase the hydrocarbon load (resulting from a spill) on one component of the ecosystem (e.g., the water column) while reducing the load on another (e.g., coastal wetland). Decisions to use dispersants, therefore, involve trade-offs between decreasing the risk to water surface and shoreline habitats while increasing the potential risk to organisms in the water column and on the seafloor.”

The report identified several critical knowledge gaps, including toxicity to particular organisms from exposure to dispersed oil, the final fate of chemically dispersed oil, and the effectiveness of dispersants for different oil types and environmental conditions. One key finding was: “The mechanisms of both acute and sublethal toxicity from exposure to dispersed oil are not sufficiently understood. Recent studies in the literature suggest that toxicity from physically and chemically dispersed oil appears to be primarily associated with the additive effects of various dissolved-phase polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) with additional contributions from heterocyclic (N, S, and O) containing polycyclic aromatic compounds. Additional toxicity may be coming from the particulate, or oil droplet, phase, but a particular concern stems from potential synergistic effects of exposure to dissolved components in combination with chemically dispersed oil droplets.”

Based on that finding, the NRC report recommended that “Relevant state and federal agencies, industry, and appropriate international partners should develop and fund a series of focused toxicity studies to determine the mechanisms of both acute and sublethal toxicity to key organisms from exposure to dispersed oil.”

However, relatively little subsequent progress has been made on the research agenda identified in the NRC report. A major reason that the body of research on dispersants is inconclusive (inconsistent among studies) is that disparate methodologies have been used.

In June 2010, the EPA reported toxicity tests of 8 dispersants (not combined with crude oil), including those being used in the BP spill. The dispersants were roughly similar to one another in toxicity when tested on the EPA-standard test organisms, mysid shrimp and silversides fish. The dispersants were also generally less toxic than oil, and they were expected to biodegrade in weeks or months rather than years as is the case for oil.

Fuller et al. (2004) applied standard EPA test protocols to mysid shrimp and silversides and sheepshead fish exposed to Arabian crude oil, Corexit 9500 dispersant, and oil plus dispersant. Oil plus dispersant was equal or less toxic than oil only. Continuous exposures were generally more toxic than declining exposures. Unweathered oil-only (dominated by soluble hydrocarbon fractions) were more toxic to silversides than weathered oil-only in which colloidal oil fractions dominated. Oil-plus dispersant media prepared with unweathered and weathered oil showed no difference in toxicity. The authors inferred that toxicity was a function of the soluble crude oil components and not the colloidal components.

Now the US EPA is testing the toxicity of Louisiana sweet crude oil combined with dispersant. These important results are expected by the end of July 2010.

A recent study indicates that dispersants alone are directly toxic to corals (Shafir, Rijn, and Rinkevich. 2007. Short and long term toxicity of crude oil and oil dispersants to two representative coral species. Environmental Science & Technology 41:5571-5574; Corexit was not tested in this study). Several coral reefs are in the vicinity of the BP oil slick, including the Flower Bank Gardens off the coast of Louisiana and Texas (designated as a marine sanctuary in 1992) and the Florida Middle Grounds, off the Florida panhandle. This issue may also be relevant to the Florida Keys, Yucatan, and Cuba.

Another issue worth watching is potential health problems for workers handling dispersant:

New BP Data Show 20% of Gulf Spill Responders Exposed to Chemical That Sickened Valdez Workers

New Data from BP’s Coverup Firm Shows Dispersants in 20% of Offshore Workers

Final comments
Prolonging spilled crude oil's exposure to offshore sea life increases environmental harms in ways we don't understand very well, and these harms are probably much worse than we know. In my opinion there's no silver lining among the tradeoffs, only trading off one bad against other bads.

It’s remarkable to me how much people have discussed toxicity of dispersants, and how little people have discussed the toxicity of crude oil, which is high for people and many other organisms. We definitely need to learn whether dispersant allows the oil to degrade fast enough and in large enough quantities to offset damage done by spreading the oil through more of the environment for longer. But we also need a comparable public discussion of the toxicity of the oil to people, to habitats and animals along the shore, and to the myriad creatures of the Gulf of Mexico.
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Lore

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #64 on: July 22, 2010, 03:23:43 AM »
Good Simmons interview: King World News, 17-Jul (MP3)

- Technical details (they capped a leak, but only a leak, not the main vent)
- Anecdotes of local hospitals surrounded by uniformed "troops" (?) blocking access to journalists
- Hundreds of people getting sick, "bleeding out" from backside, etc.

Canadian news this evening blathered at length about Conrad Black, as if anybody cares. Not a peep about the spill.

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offdalip

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #65 on: July 22, 2010, 06:31:06 AM »
http://pubs.acs.org/stoken/presspac/presspac/full/10.1021/es102150z

Analysis of Eight Oil Spill Dispersants Using Rapid, In Vitro Tests for Endocrine and Other Biological Activity

Abstract

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill has led to the use of >1 M gallons of oil spill dispersants, which are mixtures of surfactants and solvents. Because of this large scale use there is a critical need to understand the potential for toxicity of the currently used dispersant and potential alternatives, especially given the limited toxicity testing information that is available. In particular, some dispersants contain nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPEs), which can degrade to nonylphenol (NP), a known endocrine disruptor. Given the urgent need to generate toxicity data, we carried out a series of in vitro high-throughput assays on eight commercial dispersants. These assays focused on the estrogen and androgen receptors (ER and AR), but also included a larger battery of assays probing other biological pathways. Cytotoxicity in mammalian cells was also quantified. No activity was seen in any AR assay. Two dispersants showed a weak ER signal in one assay (EC50 of 16 ppm for Nokomis 3-F4 and 25 ppm for ZI-400). NPs and NPEs also had a weak signal in this same ER assay. Note that Corexit 9500, the currently used product, does not contain NPEs and did not show any ER activity. Cytotoxicity values for six of the dispersants were statistically indistinguishable, with median LC50 values 100 ppm. Two dispersants, JD 2000 and SAF-RON GOLD, were significantly less cytotoxic than the others with LC50 values approaching or exceeding 1000 ppm.
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Lore

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #66 on: July 22, 2010, 02:05:47 PM »
Very interesting. Just skimming the paper:

Quote
When looking at these in vitro data, several limitations need to be considered. First, not all assays were run in metabolically competent cells, so the effects of biotransformation are not fully accounted for. Second, these assays cannot account for the complex interactions between cells and organs that occur in a whole organism on the path to toxicity. Third, only short-term effects can be directly studied in these assays. Nonetheless, these in vitro screening tests were able to provide a rapid comparison of each dispersant’s potential for endocrine activity and relative cytotoxicity in three mammalian cell types.
...
As the concentration of a chemical approaches the cytotoxic level, generalized cell stress occurs, accompanied by broad misregulation of transcription. When this threshold is reached, many assays in this system simultaneously activate, but this activity is assumed to be nonspecific. One sentinel of this cell stress behavior is NRF2, which is an indicator of generalized oxidative stress. Therefore, if we see many assays become active at about the same concentration, especially if NRF2 is among them, we tend to discount any target specificity above that concentration.
...
All of the dispersants showed cytotoxicity in at least one cell type at concentrations between 10 and 1000 ppm.
...
The assays used in the present study are all derived from mammalian species, while the initial concern in the Gulf of Mexico is for toxicity to aquatic species. However, for many targets, including AR and ER, there is significant sequence and structural homology between mammals and fish so that chemicals active in one tend to be active in the other. The rank ordering of overall toxicity shows a correlation between human in vitro cytotoxicity and fish and shrimp in vivo lethality, giving further evidence of the usefulness of the assays used here.

One concluding observation of general interest is that we were able to detect specific bioactivities in complex chemical mixtures for time-sensitive environmental issues and using high-throughput screening assays. This is exciting given that one of the challenges of real world chemical toxicity testing is the fact that humans and other organisms are often exposed to complex mixtures, rather than the pure single compounds that are the subject of typical toxicity testing. The in vitro tests used in this study rapidly profiled the complex dispersant formulations without the use of animals, and screened for potential endocrine activity, other end points, and cytotoxicity. In different circumstances, a similar rapid screening effort could be used to make time-sensitive decisions based on potential hazard and risk.

Here is the zany part: when locals were interviewed following placement of the latest cap, they talked about "getting back to normal," as though fishing and regular business activity and environmental consequences were no longer an concern. Several fisherman were gearing up to take out their shrimp boats. It occurs to me that misinformation at all levels, including the food industry, will be a real and significant issue for years to come. EXAMPLE: WILL YOU BUY CANNED ATLANTIC SHRIMP IN THE COMING MONTHS?

There’s enough misfortune in the world without having to make stuff up. - Doug Casey

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #67 on: July 22, 2010, 02:48:08 PM »
That's because the vast majority of people have difficulty modelling complex situations in their heads. That's why stock markets and natural disasters are dangerous for average people.

What would be needed is for a "trusted authority figure" to tell them something like "expect seafoods harvested within xx miles of xx area to be contaminated with unsafe levels of xx for at least xx years after xx event, subject to further testing by xx organization at that time..."

Such a thing (trusted authority figure) does not exist in this situation.
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Lore

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #68 on: July 22, 2010, 03:50:21 PM »
Yes, I guess it would be unfair to expect people to exercise a little caution. (To what extent are 'survival instincts' socialized?)

Still, it is hard not to feel contempt for the morons who are still going to the beach. Darwinism has its place, harsh though it may be.

Quote
Such a thing (trusted authority figure) does not exist in this situation.

Dishonesty seems to be characteristic of systemic breakdown.

« Last Edit: July 23, 2010, 01:34:02 AM by Lore »
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offdalip

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #69 on: July 23, 2010, 08:54:17 AM »
I would say it safe to say, even if the leak is completely sealed from here on, that any fish/seafood in the GOM
is entirely suspect for consumption purposes for many many fish generations.

oil and dispersant will likely take years to breakdown.

Yeah, just give me that farm raised tilapia please.   :think004:
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Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #70 on: July 23, 2010, 01:48:07 PM »
Quote
Yeah, just give me that farm raised tilapia please.   

Too regulated in Washington to make it feasible. I should check on the regulations to figure out how to work around them. Chinese markets often stock live Tilapia in aquaria right in the stores.

My (future) greenhouses might make a good home for them. However, I have heard from people who tried it in Canada that aquaculture combined with hydroponics was a disaster. But the Chinese seem to be able to keep Tilapias alive in tanks. My bet is that the Canadian experiment was a failure due to lack of experience with fish-farming. The Chinese have been doing it for several thousand years. They even raise fish in temporarily flooded rice paddies!

Another problem for me at least is that Chinese herbivorous carp--another "aquatic chicken" but these cold-tolerant--are SPECIFICALLY regulated here. I think the main problem is that any fish that's easy to keep in captivity--typically air-breathers, mouth-brooders (they outcompete fish who eat their own eggs...), herbivores (they can live at much higher population densities than native fish) by definition is going to be considered a risk as an "invasive species". The very qualities that make them suitable for farming, make them "too successful".
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offdalip

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #71 on: July 23, 2010, 05:02:40 PM »
at least they won't be full of GOM hydrocarbons or other chemical pollutants
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offdalip

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #72 on: July 23, 2010, 05:34:33 PM »
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/bp-oil-spill-is-the-damage-to-the-gulf-far-less-than-feared-524502.html?tickers=BP,HAL,CAM,APC,XLE,OIL,USO

BP Oil Spill: Is the Damage to the Gulf Far LESS Than Feared?
Posted Jul 23, 2010 03:29pm EDT by Gus Lubin in Commodities
From The Business Insider

It took two weeks for everyone in America to get indignant about the oil spill. Many people suddenly were convinced of the health hazards of chemical dispersants. Dozens of Congressmen became experts on the proper variety of well casing to use when drilling for oil.

But when the oil stops gushing and the summer ends, are we going to realize this damage has all been vastly overblown?

It doesn't get much attention, but there's been a steady trickle of good news about the aftermath. Yesterday NOAA said it was re-opening one third of the closed Gulf fishing area, where oil hadn't been spotted for 30 days. NOAA has also said all seafood tested from areas where fishing was permitted has been safe to eat. Last night Admiral Allen flew over the area and there is not a lot of oil in the water out there

And currently only one major beach is closed and three are open with a swimming advisory. Other beaches are open with nothing but a sign advising people not to swim in patches of oil. In other words, the government thinks the oil spill is not a significant health risk for humans. Sure there are plenty of people reporting headaches and other purportedly oil-related ailments, but these could be temporary or imagined. Or they could be limited, enough for a few major lawsuits, but not the end of civilization.

As for other animals and the environment, no one knows, though again, everyone has a theory. One day everyone was passing around the theory of methane dinosaur extinction and talking about how the Gulf of Mexico methane bubble could kill all life on Earth -- well, turns out the scientist who invented that theory was talking about a different kind of methane.

Everyone was freaking out about reports that the oil spill had permanently altered the food chain. Well, things get altered all the time in nature. Disturbance Theory calls oil spills, forest fires, droughts, and other disturbances the fundamental force of natural progress. Remember, oil leaks do occur naturally. Petroleum is a natural substance made of dinosaur parts and trees, which causes less extended damage to the ecosystem than aerosol cans, nuclear waste, and plastic bags.

Politically, this whole thing is just waiting for the spotlight to fade before things get back to normal. Look how hard it has been for Obama to ban drilling for even a short period of time. The Gulf economy depends on oil and residents want to get back to work.

Basically it all comes down to three questions:

    * 1. Is there a cover-up? Will everyone who touches the oil die and people who eat Texas shrimp get struck with cancer?
    * 2. Will the worst-case scenario come true? Will the ocean floor collapse or the relief well fail and keep gushing until Christmas?
    * 3. Do most Americans actually know anything about the ecological consequences of the oil leak?

If the answer to any of those questions is no, then let's all take a long, deep breath.


...

On #1, I don't know if there's a cover up, but I do know toxic fish when I see them/smell them.
I wouldn't buy GOM shrimp or fish if you paid me
« Last Edit: July 23, 2010, 05:36:55 PM by offdalip »
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opsec

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #73 on: July 23, 2010, 07:57:47 PM »
This has the look and feel of a pooh-pooh piece.
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Dame

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Re: Gulf spill and its possible consequences
« Reply #74 on: July 24, 2010, 10:58:18 PM »
What I know is that there was a oil rig explosion that killed 11 people; and there is a lot of oil in the Gulf.  Everything else I have heard reported seems unrealistic and inconsistent.

 

anything