Author Topic: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!  (Read 8114 times)

The Future

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #30 on: April 27, 2009, 06:26:59 AM »
The EU has advised people not to travel to the US unless it is urgent.  Mexico too.  Spain has at least one case now.  Head to the store and buy some NAC, clove oil, vitamin C.  Maintaining a cool head is paramount.  It will give you the clarity required to make the best decisions.  As much harm as comes from this, panic causes twice the harm.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2009, 06:29:27 AM by The Future »
Wise selfishness is taking care of everyone else so that they don't bring harm to you.

darwinslair

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #31 on: April 27, 2009, 06:37:14 AM »
"The 20-50 year old is the age group that this flu targets the most. That's the same age group that makes up most of the work force. Could the economy survive a loss of 7% of the workforce?"

(quoted from Opsec)

Can we afford a loss of 7% of the workforce?

We have unemployment in excess of that.  I would say that this could save ....... billions in social services and unemployment.

Tom
If you can catch it and kill it, or grow it, dont buy it.

The Future

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #32 on: April 27, 2009, 08:27:50 AM »
I can see the obituary now.  Here lies XXXX, who helped save "billions in social services and unemployment".
Wise selfishness is taking care of everyone else so that they don't bring harm to you.

Mike

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #33 on: April 27, 2009, 10:08:29 AM »
Given the possibility of over-reacting, it is worthwhile to try to compare and contrast with the Spanish Flu of 1918.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Wikipedia's entry says 2.5% of the world was killed, and 20% contracted it.  (the entry is very poorly worded).  So, once contracting the Spanish Flu, there is a 10/2.5 chance of dieing= 8%.

The Spanish Flu lasted about 15 months and disappeared as quickly as it appeared.

The Spanish flu first appeared in Kansas in March and  a week later appeared in NY. 

The Mexican Flu first appeared on 4/13.  Two weeks later it had appeared in the US, New Zealand, Spain, 

One could argue that the Mexican Swine Flu is more contagious than the 1918 Spanish flu, but I think it is more reasonable to guess that the two flus are equally contagious and that the modern mobile world is spreading the Mexican Flu more quickly.

Another similarity of the two flus is their beginning at the end of the flu season; and that they both are most lethal to 20 to 50 year olds.

Big differences between 1918 and now is the urban concentration of the world's population and the Just In Time nature of today's food supply, and our reliance on mobility.

Lady Lilya

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #34 on: April 27, 2009, 11:49:02 AM »
Have any people in the US died from this yet?  In a typical year, we have around 36,000 deaths from flus.  That's 3000/month?  Are we sure we aren't getting worked up over this new flu for nothing?
A strong woman won't let anyone get the better of her… But a woman of strength gives the best of herself to everyone.

Mike

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #35 on: April 27, 2009, 12:31:09 PM »
It is hard to get a handle on whether this is a big deal or not.

The last I heard, there were only 20 cases in all of the US.  But now el Universal is reporting that the US has 40 cases.  What a difference going back to work and tallying up numbers on Monday makes!  As far as I know, none of the American cases have been fatal.  Have these American cases been given enough time to die or recover? 

The headline deaths in Mexico were ~80; then ~103 this morning; and now I see 149 at 11:14 (pacific time).

The first Mexican death was about 2 weeks ago.  At the risk of jumping to conclusions, I would guess that the first infections began 3 weeks ago in Mexico.  After "three weeks" Mexico has 1600 cases.  Whether this is a big deal or not may depend on how contagious it is.

I don't think it can be argued that the contagion rate is exponential; or that it is not.  It is still too early.

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #36 on: April 27, 2009, 12:34:02 PM »
Deaths from flus usually hit people who already have one foot in the grave--typically the elderly, people already seriously ill, people with compromised immunities, etc.

Swine flu is killing people who were relatively healthy before they got it. It's harder to fight than other flus, because it is a recent mutation to which humans have no previous immunity.

I suggest our New York City contingency lay low for a while.

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darwinslair

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #37 on: April 27, 2009, 01:07:34 PM »
Monday, April 27, 2009

There are some factors that suggest the swine flu killing people in Mexico may be a biological weapon, but obviously no such conclusion can be drawn at this time. The World Health Organization and the U.S. government have been quick to deny such claims.

The swine flu virus is described as a completely new strain, an intercontinental mixture of human, avian and swine viruses. Tellingly, there have been no reported A-H1N1 infections of pigs.

According to a source known to former NSA official Wayne Madsen, “A top scientist for the United Nations, who has examined the outbreak of the deadly Ebola virus in Africa, as well as HIV/AIDS victims, concluded that H1N1 possesses certain transmission “vectors” that suggest that the new flu strain has been genetically-manufactured as a military biological warfare weapon.

Madsen claims that his source, and another in Indonesia, “Are convinced that the current outbreak of a new strain of swine flu in Mexico and some parts of the United States is the result of the introduction of a human-engineered pathogen that could result in a widespread global pandemic, with potentially catastrophic consequences for domestic and international travel and commerce.”

However, it’s important to stress that it is far too early to make this assumption. We have to bear in mind that the number of victims has been comparatively low when one considers the fact that hundreds of thousands in Mexico contract infectious diseases every year related to poverty like tuberculosis and malaria.

(ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW)

Is Swine Flu A Biological Weapon? obama 340x169

Fort Detrick, the U.S. Army Medical Command installation that was the source of the 2001 anthrax attacks, is again attracting suspicion in light of the swine flu panic after it was revealed that criminal investigators are probing whether virus samples recently went missing from its biolabs.

“Chad Jones, spokesman for Fort Meade, said CID is investigating the possibility of missing virus samples from the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases,” reports The Frederick News.

In February, USAMRIID halted their work when virus samples were discovered that were not listed in its inventory. Criminal investigators from the U.S. Army Criminal Investigation Division unit at Fort Meade are now probing whether virus samples are missing from the Army’s top biolab, which also studies pathogens including ebola, anthrax and plague.

Obviously, in light of the current swine flu scare, and the new strain’s possible synthetic origin, the fact that virus samples may have gone missing from the same Army research lab from which the 2001 anthrax strain was released is extremely disturbing.

A 2008 FBI and DOJ investigation concluded that Bruce Edwards Irvins, a microbiologist, vaccinologist, and senior biodefense researcher at the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) in Fort Detrick, Maryland, was responsible for mailing anthrax to members of Congress and the media in September and October 2001.

The fact that Irvins apparently committed suicide shortly before the announcement led many to suspect that he was a patsy in a wider plot. Despite the suspicious circumstances, no autopsy was carried out on Irvins’ body. His attorney was certain that Irvins, who had cooperated with the 6-year investigation, was innocent of the five anthrax deaths.

The Department of Justice initially considered Dr. Steven Jay Hatfill to be a strong suspect in the anthrax attacks, but he later sued the government and won $5.8 million in damages. A New York Times piece on Irvins’ suicide asked the hypothetical question: “What if Dr. Hatfill had committed suicide in 2002, as friends feared he might? Would the investigators have released their evidence and announced that the perpetrator was dead?”

Fears that a mass pandemic was being readied as a biological attack have rumbled on in the conspiracy community ever since 9/11. Investigators point to the highly unusual number of deaths of top microbiologists to suggest that people with knowledge of the program are being eliminated.


http://www.prisonplanet.com/is-swine-flu-a-biological-weapon.html

Have to consider the source, but an interesting article anyway.

Tom
If you can catch it and kill it, or grow it, dont buy it.

Mike

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #38 on: April 27, 2009, 01:14:29 PM »
Tyler Cowen is an Austrian economist at George Mason University.

At his blog, http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2009/04/sentences-to-ponder-2.html
Quote
he wrote,

Sentences to ponder

Cities that instituted quarantine, school closings, bans on public gatherings and other such procedures early in the epidemic had peak death rates 30 percent to 50 percent lower than those that did not.

That is from a study of the pandemic of 1918-1919 and here is more, from 2007.  The best place to follow what is going on in Mexico -- where such restrictions are now common -- is ElUniversal.  People in Mexico are dying of the flu every day; what is the chance that only the benign version of the virus crosses the border?

Posted by Tyler Cowen on April 27, 2009 at 07:11 AM

el Universal probably is the go to place for flu epidemic news:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/noticias.html

* 5 suspected cases in Sinaloa (state north of Mazatlan) test negative
* Jail visits are suspended in Mexico, DF. to slow spread of influensa
* Chanel 22 has special influenza programming
* 20 more cases of influenza in New York.
* England confirmed two cases



Mike

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #39 on: April 27, 2009, 01:33:56 PM »
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2234&mn=200990&pt=msg&mid=7136135

Quote
.....
I don't remember more recent influenza being anything like as bad as those back then. I'm wondering if this is because Asian travel became much more common around then -- both us going there and them coming here. Most of these new strains of flu come from avian viruses getting picked up by pigs (who eat poultry dung). The genetic material from the avian flus get swapped into human-compatible viruses in the pigs. In Europe since the Middle Ages, farmers have known not to run the pigs with the poultry, but it was common practice in Asia -- hence Hong Kong flu, Swine flu, Asian flu, etc. I would hope that by now, with their much improved education, financial resources, and general competence, that the Chinese have stopped this husbandry practice.

comment: Thanks to everyone who is contributing to this thread!

MountainMeg

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #40 on: April 27, 2009, 02:54:19 PM »
Quote
Are we sure we aren't getting worked up over this new flu for nothing?

Very probable.  I just had this conversation with my inlaws this afternoon.  Agreement was my philosophy "prepare for the worst, expect the best" was a good attitude to have.  It may very well blow over into another over-hyped media phenomenon.  But if it doesn't, it didn't take long to adjust some of my "red flag" indicators, adjust my stockpile and outline a course of "what if" action.   :eatdrink004:

Watcher

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #41 on: April 27, 2009, 04:00:51 PM »
Deaths from flus usually hit people who already have one foot in the grave--typically the elderly, people already seriously ill, people with compromised immunities, etc.

Swine flu is killing people who were relatively healthy before they got it. It's harder to fight than other flus, because it is a recent mutation to which humans have no previous immunity

The reason that some flus kill more healthy people than those with 'one foot in the grave' is because the virus turns the bodies defences against themselves, provoking the immune system to attack its own body.  So, ironically, the healthier you are, the more vunerable you are.

Wellspring

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #42 on: April 27, 2009, 09:05:39 PM »
Monday, April 27, 2009

There are some factors that suggest the swine flu killing people in Mexico may be a biological weapon, but obviously no such conclusion can be drawn at this time. The World Health Organization and the U.S. government have been quick to deny such claims.

OK~  Let's say for arguments sake that this is indeed a manufactured biological weapon.  Was it released in just one location?  If so, then it would be logical to conclude the perpetrators are interested in seeing just how fast said virus can spread globally.  What would be the possible intent to unleash it at this point in time? 
Wait, just did a google search to find out if there's any news on the origin of the outbreak.  Now this is a bit strange!  Here's the top search on the Google page: 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Mexico_and_U.S._swine_influenza_outbreak

2009 Mexico and U.S. swine influenza outbreak - Wikipedia, the ...
Apr 23, 2009 ... The timing of accounts suggest first outbreak was in the USA, before spreading in Mexico. ... a b Experts probe deadly Mexico flu Published 24 April 2009; ^ New Scientist magazine: Deadly new flu virus in US and Mexico ...

What's strange is that line (in bold) is nowhere on the Wiki page.

Curiosity drives me further.  Instead of "fist outbreak" mexican flu virus, I put timeline of the mexican flu virus as the search criteria.  Here's what I found (or what THEY know & are reporting at this point in time.  I imagine that IF it is a test of a biological weapon, THEY would have covered all the bases to make it appear that it's naturally caused.

Here's the timeline from The Associated Press:  http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hyjCtfZksKLPEHXnZeWH-c3dIUmwD97R4S703

A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak

By The Associated Press – 2 hours ago

A timeline of events in the swine flu outbreak:

_ December 2005 to January 2009: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention receives reports of 12 cases of human infection with swine flu. Five of these 12 cases occurred in patients who had direct exposure to pigs and six reported being near pigs. Exposure in one case is unknown.

_ March 28: Believed to be the date of the earliest onset of the swine flu cases in the U.S., Dr. Nancy Cox of the CDC said in an April 23 press briefing.

_ April 2: A 4-year-old boy contracted the virus before this date in Veracruz state, Mexican Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova later said citing test results. A community in Veracruz has been protesting pollution from a large pig farm.

_ April 6: Local health officials declare a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in the Mexican town of La Gloria in Veracruz state. Health officials record 400 cases of people who sought medical treatment in the previous week in the town. About 60 percent of the town of 3,000 are affected.

_ April 17: CDC determines that two children in adjacent counties in southern California had illnesses caused by infection with swine flu. Both children became sick in late March.

_ April 22: CDC confirms three additional cases of swine flu in California and two in Texas, near San Antonio.

_ April 22: The Oaxaca Health Department indicates that 16 employees at the Hospital Civil Aurelio Valdivieso have contracted respiratory disease.

_ April 24: Mexico's Minister of Health confirms 20 deaths from swine flu, but 40 other fatalities were being probed and at least 943 nationwide were sick from the suspected flu. Mexico City shuts down schools, museums, libraries, and state-run theaters across the capital.

_ April 26: The number of confirmed cases in the U.S. climbs to 20 in five states. Mexico reports suspect clinical cases have been reported in 19 of the country's 32 states. Canada confirms six cases.

_ April 27: The World Health Organization raises its pandemic alert status to Phase 4, meaning there is sustained human-to-human transmission of the virus causing outbreaks in at least one country.

Cordova said 1,995 people have been hospitalized with serious cases of pneumonia since mid-April and about half of those have been released. The government does not yet know how many were swine flu. The CDC reports the suspected death toll in Mexico has climbed to 149.

The number of confirmed cases in the U.S. climbs to 48 in five states.

Spain reports its first confirmed swine flu case.



Dig within. Within is the wellspring of Good; and it is always ready to bubble up, if you just dig.         ~Marcus Aurelius

Wellspring

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #43 on: April 27, 2009, 09:23:04 PM »
Some of you might be interested to check out trackernews.net if you are unaware of it. (see overview of them at bottom).  I found the best timeline of the virus (I won't post as it's pretty long) posted as a link at trackernews.net   The link on trackernews.net site takes one to Veratect, a biosurveillance site (here it is).  Oh, they were the very first to report on this outbreak.  (BTW, make sure to check out some of the other related stories about the virus at trackernews.net.

http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/biosurveillance/2009/04/swine-flu-in-mexico-timeline-of-events.html

Make sure to check out the comments below the timeline at above link.  One particular comment asks a very provocative question:  Are they testing for barium poisoning. Barium can be inhaled and ingested with the source being the chemtrails disbursed by planes and ending up in water supply and in the air.


Veratech also has real-time updates at:  twitter.com/veratect


TrackerNews.net is an aggregator with a few twists. Its beat covers health issues, humanitarian work, technology that supports both and is broadly defined. "Health," for example, includes animal, plant and planetary health along with human health.
Every humanitarian crisis, of course, has a health component and vice-versa. It is all of a piece.
TrackerNews is about the mix and the match of news, research and innovation. It is a medium as well as a resource.

Although groups of links tend to be driven by news events, in general TrackerNews is not an aggregator for this-just-in news. Nor are stories ranked by popularity, which tends to create a self-reinforcing skew. Links are selected for their bearing on a particular subject and their utility. Academic papers are often included in groupings to make is easier for interested readers to see original research and find contact information.
« Last Edit: April 27, 2009, 09:26:28 PM by Wellspring »
Dig within. Within is the wellspring of Good; and it is always ready to bubble up, if you just dig.         ~Marcus Aurelius

Wellspring

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Re: H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!
« Reply #44 on: April 27, 2009, 09:49:27 PM »
Would be quite interesting if we could find any tech savvy Mexican who is twittering from Veracruz area.  I've just started exploring the use of twitter.  Will have to see if I can find anyone twittering from Mexico.

 
I think we should view this as an interesting 'stress testing' of societies.

Watch Mexico City carefully for actual data on how people behave in the event of a possible pandemic, how services are maintained and how the authorities react.

Think of it as a valuable learning exercise to see if there are any weaknesses in your plans that you can amend in light of information gained from these events.

Dig within. Within is the wellspring of Good; and it is always ready to bubble up, if you just dig.         ~Marcus Aurelius

 

anything