H1N1 influenza possible pandemic alert!

[Average Joe]

Does anyone else think this could be bioterrorism?  What are the odds of a pig contracting avian flu, then contracting Human flu, then combining them to make a combo flu, then going to a bar in Cancun and coughing on students?

[opsec]

...and right on the heels of the "accident" with the ferrets in Austria no less. Yea, my BS meter is ringing loudly too.

[Watcher]

I think we should view this as an interesting 'stress testing' of societies.

Watch Mexico City carefully for actual data on how people behave in the event of a possible pandemic, how services are maintained and how the authorities react.

Think of it as a valuable learning exercise to see if there are any weaknesses in your plans that you can amend in light of information gained from these events.

[The Future]

Veeeryy interesting.

[darwinslair]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm

emails from docs and people in mexico.  that it is from teh BBC has to be taken into account.

Tom

[MountainMeg]

then combining them to make a combo flu, then going to a bar in Cancun and coughing on students?

So a pig and a parrot walk into a bar...  Sorry, couldn't help it!   

Watching one twitter on the spread.  http://twitter.com/veratect  Just got my kids bottles of hand sanitizer for their backpacks.  Sat them down to emphasize hand washing, using the germ-x and covering coughs.  And emphasized I don't mind replacing empty bottles!  Already stockpiled on adult and children's tylenol & motrin, cough & cold relief, allergy & prescrip medications.  Just need more TP! 

Hubby works as an necessary cog for an installation.  Figure the day they mention vaccinations or lock down there, I'll pull the kids from school and hunker down.

[Mike]

MountainMeg,
You've got a sensible plan.

I read all of Darwinslair's link.  It is way to early to make any predictions.  But I get the feeling that this will go worldwide.

Has anyone else read that entire article.  What kind of mortality rate should we be expecting?

[opsec]

Hubby works as an necessary cog for an installation.  Figure the day they mention vaccinations or lock down there, I'll pull the kids from school and hunker down.

Do us all a favor and post a message if/when this happens ok?...thanks.

[MountainMeg]

Do us all a favor and post a message if/when this happens ok?...thanks

Will do.  Figure it's my best gauge of the seriousness of the situation.  In the meantime, my final tax season paycheck was 4x what I was expecting so I expect tomorrow will be inventory and Tuesday will be "fill the holes" time.

I read the entire BBC link and it's frightening if correct but not surprising.  I was feeling that we had time since we're now far away from S. California, but a flu map puts cases in Ohio and NYC on either side of PA. 

[Mike]

In Mexico the mortality rate was 86 in 1400 people.
It was updated to 103 in 1614.

So it looks like one in 16 people who contract swine flu will die.  That is 7%!

The next question is, "How contagious is it?"  Will everyone in the world get it?

[opsec]

The 20-50 year old is the age group that this flu targets the most. That's the same age group that makes up most of the work force. Could the economy survive a loss of 7% of the workforce?

[Atash Hagmahani]

Jim Sinclair has a bunch of links at his site at

www.jsmineset.com

I have not read through them yet. Without knowing more I suggest avoiding airports and un-necessary travel in general.

I'm worried about my newborn.

I'm going to get some hand gel and maybe some other precautionary supplies once I figure out what would make sense.

[Atash Hagmahani]

Comment from BBC reader in Mexico:

I’m a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.

There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.

[Atash Hagmahani]

As you can see I've stickied this and given it an exclamation point message icon.

I think we need to take precautions quickly. Hopefully all of you have supplies and could hunker down if needed.

My concern is that the center of infection appears to be Mexico, they have not shut down the border, the CDC is not doing anything helpful, Janet Neapolitano is not dealing with this, etc. It's already in NYC so you can guess that it's all over the airports now.

[offdalip]

I think we need to take precautions quickly. Hopefully all of you have supplies and could hunker down if needed.

great..........the week I decide to take off for a week in OBX in NC we get a XXXX, at least it's isolated and surrounded by hundreds of miles of water here.........