Author Topic: Credit insurance  (Read 359 times)

Atash Hagmahani

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Credit insurance
« on: September 11, 2008, 12:47:12 AM »
I am not sure which articles to post, so I'll summarize for right now.

The federal government's takeover of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is being reported by several sources (who probably are on the same rumor mills) to have triggered a credit event covered by credit derivatives. The market for credit default swaps is massive.

Keep watching this space.

Andy? Mike?
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Mike

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Re: Credit insurance
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2008, 10:34:01 AM »
The best insurance policies are relationships with family, friends, acquaintances and personal business dealings. 

There is a widespread misplaced faith in insurers who collect premiums and promise insurance. 

The shakiest insurance has got to be mortgage insurance; because the housing market is overbuilt and overpriced.  Our economy has over-emphasized building and selling houses, and now we have to many unneeded houses.

I don't see where the FNM nationalization made any difference regarding mortgage insurers.  They were insolvent before, and insolvent after.  Derivatives, like credit default swaps were worthless (I mean worth 'very little') before the nationalization and after. 

Moving from mortgage insurers to debt insurers (generally) and debt derivative instruments like Credit Default Swaps, are worthless (I mean worth 'very little).

Holders of these instruments could be various funds looking for returns to finance obligations like retirement, health care,  insurance obligations like auto, fire, flood, etc.  In other words, we should question every promiser and every insurer because their financial strength is not sufficient for the risks they are obligated to cover.

It will be really interesting to see how this unfolds regarding things like auto, home, health insurance and retirement funds.

One of the most interesting aspects is municipal bond insurers.  They are in bad shape and there ability to insure municipal bonds is questionable.  Municpalities are going to find it hard to float their bonds, especially at a good rate.

Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Credit insurance
« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2008, 12:21:33 AM »
I've got some thoughts but they are still crystalizing in my head. My main thought is that if the credit default insurance is proven to be no good, then interest rates should go up to reflect the higher risk of default, that was always there but was masked by the bogus insurance.

I don't think defaults are an insurable event. To be insurable, you need an event that happens with some sort of regularity, so that you can calculate the probability of it occurring. But business cycles make defaults a come-and-go event. I suppose that you could work out probabilities based on very long records, but I doubt they did that.

I suppose the very nature of credit defaults make them uninsurable. They are most likely to happen when the whole economy is going into the toilet...precisely when the so-called "insurers"--who I think were just speculators looking for "easy" money by way of premiums they did not earn--are the least likely to have the funds to cover the "insurance" promised! Someone did not think this out very well.

I haven't heard much about mortgage default insurance. I have no idea who the underwriters tend to be, or what the terms are like. That should be interesting.

You're right, family and friends are good insurance.
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Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Credit insurance
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2008, 12:25:05 AM »
Come to think of it...if default rates rise--then if anyone is still fool enough to want to buy the credit default insurance, then premiums should go up.

So one way or another, a lot of debt should either no longer be marketable at all, or interest rates and borrowing costs should go up.
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Re: Credit insurance
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2008, 10:43:36 AM »
I was thinking that everything is insurable, but the insurers lacked sufficient strength.

You are right!  Some things are uninsurable.  I hadn't even considered that.

By nationalizing FNM, the insurer of last resort is the American taxpayer, aka American consumer, aka American debtor.  The ultimate blow-back will be the US dollar.  The ultimate question will be whether the treasury monetizes all of this debt and repays with devalued dollars OR if creditors run from dollars.

Presently, creditors are supporting the US dollar.  There is every appearance of support for the dollar.  This has got to be the result of the most important creditors (oil purveyors) supporting the dollar.  It is risky to expect this to continue in the long run.


opsec

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Re: Credit insurance
« Reply #5 on: September 13, 2008, 01:16:34 AM »
What exactly are credit derivatives and credit default swaps?
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Atash Hagmahani

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Re: Credit insurance
« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2008, 08:42:10 AM »
Opsec, thank you for asking. This is an important discussion, and everyone should benefit from it. Sometimes some of us don't know what other people don't know, and we use jargon without explaining it. Please keep asking questions, so that everyone will benefit from the discussions, and learn something new.

A "derivative" is a contract whose value depends on on the value of another contract. That is a very broad definition, but necessarily so because there are huge numbers of types of derivatives. Some examples will help:

You know what stock options are; sometimes employers give them to employees as incentives. The ones that employers give to employees are of the form

"You have the right, but not the obligation, to buy x*100 shares of ABC stock at $y a share, within z years."

Now, if the price of ABC stock is MORE THAN $y/share, then you potentially have an instant profit. You can also buy stock options, and you can buy them with several different kinds of terms. The one where you have an option to buy is called a "call". There is another one giving you the option to sell, called a "put". The terms of a put look like this:

"You have the right, but not the obligation, to sell x*100 shares of ABC stock for $y a share, within z years."

The reason you might buy such a thing, is that maybe you have ABC stock, and can't sell it yet (maybe you don't want to trigger a short-term capital gain, or you just have so bloody much you have to sell it off slowly or you'll crash the market). So in that case, buying the put is "insurance" against the price going DOWN. If the price goes DOWN, your stock option magically becomes worth more money, and it compensates you for your real or paper loss.

In fact, you don't even have to own ABC stock. Suppose that you think that ABC stock is about to plunge. You could speculatively buy some put contracts on it. If you are right, you could make huge amounts of money very quickly, starting with a relatively small wager. If you are wrong, you only lose the money that you used to buy the puts; it's not like shorting a stock, where you have unlimited liability.

Credit derivatives are contracts whose terms are based on certain events related to bonds. Bonds are basically just resellable loans. If you borrow money to buy a house, then your loan is pooled with a bunch of other loans (probably), and a bank sells off the right to collect the payments on these loans--now this can get quite complicated, so don't worry too much about the details.

Let's keep it simple and talk about municipal bonds. Let's say that the government of Orange County, California, wants to borrow money. They can go to an investment bank, and borrow money. To get the money, the investment bank sells bonds (this is why investment banks are so rich--they take their profit up-front, before defaults and bankruptcies occur!). The bondholders are now the creditors to Orange County. If Orange County pays back the loan, the creditors get their money back, plus interest.

But as we all know, Orange County was involved in one of the biggest bond defaults of all time. How can the investment bank sell Orange County bonds, if potential investors are afraid of Orange County not paying them back?

Well, traditionally, you can make the deal by sweetening it. The investors want to be rewarded for taking the risk; that means that they will demand higher interest. But investment banks don't like that idea!! If Orange County can barely afford the loan as it is (which is why the problem occurs in the first place), then maybe they won't borrow the money! And then the investment bank would not make its own profit.

So, someone came up with a new solution: credit default "insurance". For a relatively small fee (compared to higher interest rates), a third party agrees to pay money if the borrower defaults on the loan.

This is a derivative, because it is based on the value of something else (the loan, that is, the bonds). It is called a "credit default swap".

The people who make these agreements are called the "underwriters". Now, who are the underwriters?

Well, we don't know exactly. You see, this is a highly unregulated, unorganized market. We think they are typically speculators looking for a supposedly "easy" income stream.

In the real insurance industry, you have to have huge pools of funds, to prove that you really can pay up in the event that a covered event has happened. Right now, the insurance industry is probably on the line for storm damage along the Gulf Coast. Now, one of the things that the insurance industry did, was it refused to cover certain properties--such as those that are too close to the waterfront--because the risk was too high. (by the way, the insurance companies invest their pools of funds, ostensibly in very low-risk investments. What do you suppose happens if insurance companies lose some of the money that they pooled to indemnify--that is, pay up on--covered losses?)

The credit default swaps did NOT manage their risk. They were covering everything and anything. It appears to outside observers that what they were after were the premiums. To hell with actually paying up in the event of an insured event happening!!

So, interest rates were kept artificially low, through promises of "insurance" coverage if the debtors defaulted. Now that the credit insurance biz is about to be uncovered as a massive fraud, it is likely that interest rates will soar, to compensate lenders for the possibility of defaults, and to try to lure them back to American credit markets, knowing that the market is highly fraudulent.

It is worth noting, that SIR ALAN GREENSPAN ENCOURAGED THIS FRAUD.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2008, 08:45:47 AM by Atash Hagmahani »
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Re: Credit insurance
« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2008, 10:05:44 AM »
That was a great explanation of 'derivatives.'

Quote
So, interest rates were kept artificially low, through promises of "insurance" coverage if the debtors defaulted. Now that the credit insurance biz is about to be uncovered as a massive fraud, it is likely that interest rates will soar, to compensate lenders for the possibility of defaults, and to try to lure them back to American credit markets, knowing that the market is highly fraudulent.

The soundness of retirement funds and various mundane insurances could become questionable if their assets become illiquid or worthless.

********
It is believed that speculators add liquidity to markets; and that the markets are the best determiner of price.  That is, a very large number of people putting their money where there mouth is, can price a commodity better than a central planner. 

Taken one step further, it has been suggested that everything from weather and hurricane risk to assassination probabilities could be best defined by opening up market derivatives based on the outcomes of weather, hurricanes, assassinations.... etc.  It would be a zero-sum game.  But it would theoretically yield the best probabilities of such events occurring.

http://www.pring.com/movieweb/election2008/election2008.html

For me, the linked site is slow to load.  But it takes McCain & Obama poll data and applies standard technical analysis to it; and all the lingo.

It is always go back to re-examine fundamental assumptions. 
Quote
Is it true that speculators add liquidity to a market?
Is it true that the larger the number of market participants, the more accurately the market will fix its price?

If we think of the market price as a moving target, and the speculators and arbitragers as excellent archers shooting at the price, we should get a distribution around the right price.  It would probably be a normal distribution.  If we double the number of excellent archers, speculators and arbitragers, it should better define the right price.

What would happen to the distribution if a bunch of amateurs entered the market?  I would think they would contribute very little to determining the right price.  Their pricing arrows would add uncertainty because they don't have a good idea of how to determine pricing or shoot an arrow.

What if most market participants are shooting pricing arrows based on wrong ideas?   This would be akin to blindfolding the archer; putting him on a merry-go-round; and letting him shoot his pricing arrows.  This distribution is not normal.

There are a lot of wrong ideas out there: Keynes, 'markets need to be regulated,' 'currency should not be a store of value,' 'capitalism needs to be regulated & controlled,'  'market equilibrium,' 'efficient market hypothesis.'  Add to that, the general public executing Cramer-based wagers and hedge-fund-based/Moodys-Fitch-Standard&Poors-based/insurance-based fraud and a government bent on bailing out almost everybody,.......

The archer is on the merry-go-round.

 

 

anything