FOR REVIEW: First draft of getting started with preparedness

[Atash Hagmahani]

First draft of getting started with preparedness document.

http://www.mutuallyassuredsurvival.com/wiki/tiki-download_file.php?fileId=24

Send comments.

[Average Joe]

I am a newbie, but have been visiting this site for two or three months. Your first draft is a great start.  It answers the question of why do I need to prepare and what am I preparing for.  I look forward to reading it as you get into the how question.  Preparedness is pretty overwhelming to all of us out here.  There are so many areas to preparedness, but they work together.  A year's supply of food is great to have, but you have to have a way to cook it.  That red winter wheat will last forever, but you need a grinder to make it usable.  That food will need safe water to mix with it, so you have to have a filtration system.  Having all that food is great, but it may need to be protected.  Hence, home defense enters the preparedness picture.  They are inter-related, and people who are getting started will need to know about all the areas of preparedness.  You have a huge task ahead, but a much needed one.  I look forward to reading your future getting started drafts to see how I can better prepare. 

Thanks so much for the site.  I respect the knowledge, wisdom and experience all of you have.  I look forward to visiting the site every day.  I hope I can contribute something occasionally.

Average Joe in Missouri.   

[mantis308]

It's a good article.

My wife and I were talking last night about the turning point we've reached in the state of the nation. She voted for Obama and criticized me from not voting for the president. I explained that it was pointless, that whoever is elected won't do anything to save the nation, while the man I voted for in the Primary would have. She finally understands now that the things we are doing as a nation are unsustainable, and asked me what can we do about it?

I simply said that we as individuals can do little to change the course that the nation is going. But we are responsible for ourselves and our family, so we can change the ourselves, and prepare for the world that we'll be living in, rather than hope that things will stay the same at worst.

I'll show her your article, because it's very explanatory!

[IEFPRO]

I have a feeling many folks are missing a very important point.  NO ONE can fix the issues we are going to face not only as a nation but as a world.  6.5 billion people and growing.  It is the population overload that is causing the issues.   We are growing beyond the planets ability to provide for everyone.  Something dramatic has got to happen to reduce the population by at least a third...

We are running out of all resources, because we are consuming to much as a world and we can not continue at this pace.  Even renewable resources have a limit… 

While this may make me a “blacklisted” person for this site, (LOL)  I actually disagree with you Atash that oil is our biggest concern – clean drinkable water is the biggest issue we are facing in the near future.  Food supplies are closely behind that.  We can and will manage the energy issue, but water and food is something we have a limit to that will not be easily replaceable.  There are severe water shortages all over the world, causing starvation and other health issues.  It is my belief that we will soon forget about energy as an issue.

I also disagree with you on Iraq.  I will not argue this old argument – but it is a popularist position you take. 

When you boil it all down – I think our planet and race is heading for a major calamity – no matter how you look at it, unless we can stop population growth that is.  At some point we will reach critical mass and Africa starvation will hit the entire world.  But I also believe that something massive will happen before we hit that point to cause 1/3-2/3 reduction in world wide population…

[Dame]

I agree with both of you.

The developed world still consumes a vastly disproportionate share of the worlds resources.

We need to examine our rate of consumption of relatively scarce resources along with our rate of environmental distruction.

I can do almost nothing about the world's various levels of current or proposed government, I can however personally investigate what the minimum requirements for a healthy life are and experiment with my own life, to adapt to the far less consumptive life style.

I am really squeemish about all 6 billion of us attaining the rate of consumption currently practiced here in N.America.  I am also really squeemish about actively supporting the genocide of 1/3 of the human race.  Neither are acceptable within my own current values and beliefs.

Population control does not necessarily mean the extermination of huge numbers of people.  We can do better than that.  The Chineese have made an initial effort at population control with their one child per family rule.  It has problems, like gender preference creating massive inbalance in the ratio of women to men amoungst young adults.  And they have used a modified version of welfare to do so.  Health care, education and pensions for those who comply.  I have't seen any numbers on what the population of China would have been without the one child policy.  Anyone know?

Limited socialism (welfare) under these conditions MAY be a reasonable approach.
Limited consumption may be another.  This would involve some sort of system of taxation.

I am considering these things, not advocating for them.  Not nearly enough info and or thought to have arrived at an opinion.

[Atash Hagmahani]

I have a feeling many folks are missing a very important point.  NO ONE can fix the issues we are going to face not only as a nation but as a world. 

 I can't fix those issues either, so I'm not going to try. I can't save the world. I can help a few people help themselves.

While this may make me a “blacklisted” person for this site, (LOL)  laughing002 I actually disagree with you

Thanks for the warning. Disagreements don't bother me; I don't expect everyone to agree with me; it would not be a rational expectation. I would probably only blacklist those who intentionally post libel, threats, "fighting words", pornography (a few people have made dirty jokes...I try to create the impression that my board is intended to be "G-rated and family-friendly"), and that sort of thing which would cause me grief and irritate my members. I try to cut some slack to let people blow off some steam, but unfortunately sometimes things escalate.

clean drinkable water is the biggest issue we are facing in the near future.

Right. Better have plenty of kerosene for boiling water, which is how they make it marginally potable in Africa and India. 

Food supplies are closely behind that.

At roughly 10kcal/fuel per 1kcal of wheat, I'd say we'd better have plenty of tractor fuel, or switch back to oxen as they have already had to do in Cuba. In Brazil, there's a lot of brute-force human labor being used to plant and harvest crops. Backbreaking work, but then one could eat and live another day.

I also disagree with you on Iraq.  I will not argue this old argument

Thanks. I don't want to argue either, because it distracts attention away from more important matters. The impetus for writing what I wrote was my belief that people deserve to know why they're going to be eating rats. So, to avoid un-necessary distractions, I will change the wording so as to first quote Dr. Anna Schwartz regarding which rate cut was the straw that broke the camel's back, and then quote Sir Alan Greenspan verbatim regarding why he made the rate cut, and let the reader come to his (her) own conclusions without any commentary on my part. Let the folks who planned our economy speak for themselves. Does that seem fair?

– but it is a popularist position you take

.

That is a refreshing change of pace after so many years of accusations of being a "bourgeois elitist pig". 

When you boil it all down – I think our planet and race is heading for a major calamity – no matter how you look at it, unless we can stop population growth that is. 

What will you personally do? What actions will you take to secure your own future?

[Publius]

I found a small error. Canada has oil sands, not shale. Oil shale exists in the U.S. in Colorado and surrounding. Same argument though for shale as sands. Lots of energy to extract and only so many refineries can handle the thick stuff that they would produce.

Back to the tar sands. The pipeline capacity isn't sufficient to get more than 2 million barrels a day right now either and Valero is one of the only refiners that has the capability to refine it and their capacity is used on Venezuelan oil too. I haven't tracked it for two years or so, because I know we are in trouble and stopped studying it closely. But you are spot on in the analysis. NONE of what we have on tap domestically (I include Canada) won't supply near enough oil for the U.S. at current consumption, even though both the sands and shale are larger reserves that all of Saudi Arabia. High energy. I think a 3 to 1 ratio. You get three barrels of oil for every one in energy you use. Saudi oil is still like 50 to 1 maybe more.

Yeh exactly. Why is BP motto now "Beyond Petroleum"? Well because we are.

Well that is all I saw in the areas I know a bit about. Some of the other things I know and agree, but am not a Subject Matter Expert (SME).

[Atash Hagmahani]

Canada has oil sands, not shale.

Oops. Thank you. Those kinds of errors can blow credibility.  Thank you; I'm glad you caught that.

(but same argument applies...you can't just pump it and use it...)

[opsec]

Excellent article. It really hits the nail on the head as an orientation/sit-rep. What makes it really effective is the fact that it is concise, a sort of "readers digest" format with all fact and no fat that a person can read in one sitting. You may want to expand the article to include ways for people to network or combine their available resources into an intentional community. There are ways to use LLC's and trusts in combination that will make such business structures legally unassailable.

[Atash Hagmahani]

Opsec, I thought of those issues, and thought that I would handle them by creating links (with backup names of files to look for in case they get broken), for expanding on more specific issues. That way each document is handling a relatively specific issue. This one was supposed to answer the question "what am I getting ready for?", and just to touch on some high-level strategies.

Which leads me to the next question, being what topics I should cover next.

[IEFPRO]

You ask what I am doing about population growth?  Good question, my answer - I have not "yet" had children.  I am in my 50's, and mnade a decision many years ago to not have children.

"The economic health of the world continues to worsen at a horrific rate. However, most choose to focus on the most minuscule crumbs of hope, which they choose to believe will lead to this destructive tide being turned around. Most everyone who is concerned with economic conditions has the basic belief that eventually the economy will turn around and things will become prosperous once again, since they see this as simply another economic cycle for the world. Even gold, oil, and currencies have shifted in the past few weeks to such a degree that many find comfort and encouragement from what they see, but they do not understand that this is a false indicator of the true economic state of affairs. This is only a lull before the storm that leads to a final worldwide economic collapse. Banks, brokerage firms, and other such institutions are about to be plunged into their worst nightmares, but they will not believe this is true until it is too late."

[Lady Lilya]

You ask what I am doing about population growth?  Good question, my answer - I have not "yet" had children.  I am in my 50's, and mnade a decision many years ago to not have children.

I think Atash meant what are you doing about clean water and about food.

[Average Joe]

Atash, you ask what should you cover next? 

Since the topic is getting started with preparedness, how did you start?  Was it food storage, water storage and filtration, gardening?  It would be interesting reading if you would write of your own journey to preparedness.  Then you might suggest a sequence for the reader to follow to become prepared.  Prioritize for them what your priorities were and give your reasons for their order.

[IEFPRO]

Lady - you may be right, but I was thinking he was asking about population growth since he asked his question under my quote about population growth. 

As for what am I doing about clean water:  I have two 200 foot wells on my property and a man made pond, that fills very quickly and has a small spring in the bottom.   I have a water filter in case I need it.  I also have a large swimming pool.

For food - well I am building my supplies.  Right now it is mostly dry goods and can goods.  I plan on doing bulk long term this coming year.  I also have 1/2 acre of asparagus and several garden boxes with highly improved soil.  I also have 8 Donkeys...  Good for work and fertilizer.  Easy to keep, because they are desert animals and can live on almost anything.  Donkeys have been the primary beast of burden since the beginning of time.

Atash - how about talking about how we can get a group started.  Kind of goes with the name of the site...